Research Paper

Energy Strategy Insights - International Crude Oil Markets Remain Calm

Author	Yoshikazu Kobayashi
Summary	Although negotiations between the United States and Iran are ongoing over freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz and Iran’s nuclear development program, as of the time of writing (May 26), no agreement is yet in ...
Outline	Due to the confrontation between the United States and Iran, the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz has continued, causing an unprecedented supply disruption equivalent to roughly 20% of global oil consumption. Nevertheless, crude oil prices have remained in the range of $90–100 per barrel, and the market has stayed relatively calm. This can be attributed to several factors, including the pre-existing supply surplus and high levels of oil inventories prior to the crisis, expectations that governments will release strategic petroleum reserves, and a “normalcy bias” under which market participants assume that the situation will be temporary. In addition, it may be argued that the futures market, affected by the problem of “flood of information,” is not fully reflecting actual supply-and-demand conditions in the physical market.
Keyword	Crude oil price, Strait of Hormuz, Geopolitical risk, WTI, Brent
Media	ＨＰ (5/27/2026)
URL	https://test-eneken.mvmt.jp/en/energy_strategy_insights.html
Report PDF	https://test-eneken.mvmt.jp/data/13276.pdf